For weeks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been silently buying time, waiting to resume a war he has staunchly believed in since the fateful events of October 7, 2023.

While many believed Gaza had politically broken Netanyahu—especially after he agreed to a deal that allowed Hamas to survive—the embattled leader is now launching a new phase of the war. This time, he is doing so with full backing from U.S. President Donald Trump. Although the two are not completely aligned in time or strategy, Trump is granting Netanyahu a crucial window of opportunity.

Netanyahu has effectively abandoned the second phase of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, citing various pretexts under the guise of extending the initial stage. In reality, he was dissatisfied with the outcomes so far: Hamas remained intact, Gazans had not been fully displaced, and a new sociopolitical order for Gaza was far from established.

Domestically, Netanyahu faces a deepening crisis. His sacking of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar sparked public outrage. He's clashing with the Mossad, struggling with reluctant army reservists, and remains locked in long-standing battles with the Supreme Court and the opposition—tensions that only continue to grow.

In a bid to shift momentum, Netanyahu launched a preemptive offensive. But that move has only intensified public anger, snowballing into a growing backlash. Still, hopes for his political downfall from within Israel seem far-fetched for now—unless the opposition unites in a dramatic move like nationwide civil disobedience.

Despite a broad coalition of opposition figures—from former military officials to politicians across various sectors—they remain divided on key issues. Meanwhile, Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister and a seasoned political operator, still holds sway over right-wing voters, especially during wartime. His political recovery is so strong that he has rejected calls to establish a national inquiry committee—delaying any such decision until after the war, a conflict with no clear end in sight.

Two major shifts now define the current landscape. First, the U.S. position has granted Netanyahu operational leeway, especially amid a glaring absence of Arab opposition and the unraveling of anti-Israel alliances. Second, Netanyahu has revived rhetoric about a multi-front war, including ground operations, while the U.S. ramps up its presence—sending aircraft carriers and issuing warnings to Iran, even as it intervenes directly in Yemen. Netanyahu, for his part, is preparing for a prolonged conflict.

In parallel, the prime minister—having fended off legal challenges for now—is pushing to pass the state budget in the Knesset. Failure would topple his government. Success, however, would buy him more time and possibly set the stage for reelection next October, as the Israeli right regains strength.

As for Gaza, Netanyahu is prepared to reoccupy it. Yet, he aims to present a disciplined front, especially to the international community and Washington. His goal: subdue Hamas through military pressure, implement a mass displacement plan agreed upon with Trump, and recover as many hostages as possible.

He has leaned on his traditional sources of power—the military and security agencies. He ordered the closure of the Rafah crossing and halted humanitarian aid, aiming to weaken Hamas’ grip, which previously benefited from such aid. This marks a significant policy shift backed by new Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi’s replacement, Eyal Zamir.

This renewed offensive had been in the works since the ceasefire, which Netanyahu and his inner circle viewed merely as the calm before the storm. A comprehensive target bank had already been drawn up, including hundreds of political, civilian, and military sites linked to Hamas. Israeli troops had never fully withdrawn from Gaza, giving Netanyahu a strategic advantage not available in Lebanon.

Adding fuel to the fire was the celebratory atmosphere in Gaza following the release of hostages—Hamas leaders delivering speeches, cars parading with hostages, and victory declarations. These scenes humiliated Netanyahu and handed him yet another justification for resuming the war.

But Hamas still holds a card that deeply troubles Netanyahu: 59 hostages remain in its hands. It is believed that at least 35 of them are dead. What Netanyahu failed to achieve through war, Hamas is not prepared to concede at the negotiating table. Despite showing some flexibility, the movement insists on honoring the initial agreement.

After enduring over 17 months of war—the longest in Israel's history—Hamas refuses to surrender. It watches as its enemy faces a potentially existential internal crisis involving the opposition, judiciary, hostage families, and a public increasingly concerned that Netanyahu is endangering hostages to delay his own trial and extend his political life.

Hamas has shown a willingness to accept a new post-war governance model—so long as it doesn’t take center stage—but it won’t step aside entirely. Its orchestrated displays of resilience were meant to underscore its insistence on partnership in post-war Gaza, especially as no unified Palestinian vision has emerged for the territory’s future. At the same time, it has flatly rejected disarmament—knowing that without it, there will be no ceasefire, and no Arab-led reconstruction efforts.

Ironically, this position plays right into Netanyahu’s hands. He, too, firmly opposes any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, making Hamas’ hardline stance a convenient foil for his own plans.