Syria’s future remains highly uncertain due to its deep internal divisions and the competing agendas of influential foreign powers. The fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the rise of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a dominant force have not resolved Syria’s instability. Instead, the conflict has been reshaped along new lines, fueled and financed by external powers.

Among the key players shaping Syria’s trajectory, Israel’s long-term strategy stands out as both powerful and overt. This strategy is not about ensuring its own security, as it claims—security that is already guaranteed by the United States, the world’s most dominant power. Rather, it is a deliberate effort to fragment the region, enabling the plundering of its resources and the subjugation of its states.

The Revival of the Yinon Plan

The events of October 7, 2023, and Israel’s shift toward a unified right-wing political consensus have revived and reinforced the "Yinon Plan"—a doctrine advocating the weakening and dismemberment of Arab states to fulfill Israel’s vision of territorial expansion. Israel now views the fragmentation of neighboring countries not just as a long-term security strategy but as an immediate necessity. This approach serves a dual purpose: addressing regional threats while simultaneously strengthening and expanding Israel’s economy.

Israel has accelerated its military strikes against Lebanon and Syria, laying the groundwork for the next phase of its strategic blueprint. For decades, it has sought to weaken and divide neighboring states, particularly Syria, to prevent the emergence of a strong, unified adversary. This doctrine, deeply rooted in the Yinon Plan, emerged in the 1980s as a counterargument to the "Land for Peace" principle, which was being implemented through the final stages of the Camp David Accords. Instead of exchanging land for peace, Israel has pursued a new strategy: "War and Fragmentation for Peace."

What Starts in Lebanon Doesn’t End There

In Syria, this strategy has played out through repeated Israeli airstrikes on Iranian positions, Hezbollah targets, and key Syrian military and government infrastructure. These attacks are not solely aimed at countering Iranian influence but at ensuring Syria remains weak, divided, and incapable of re-emerging as a geopolitical threat.

This fragmentation will inevitably spill over into Lebanon, a country already plagued by sectarian tensions and political corruption. Israel’s ongoing military violations and its declared intention to maintain control over strategic positions in southern Lebanon—along with a vast uninhabited buffer zone—suggest that its objective extends beyond Syria. By exacerbating Lebanon’s internal divisions, Israel aims to fuel perpetual instability, pushing the country’s sectarian groups toward intensified internal conflict.

But Lebanon is only the beginning. This strategy of engineered disintegration is designed to extend across the Arab world, targeting states from Egypt and Syria to Lebanon and Jordan and ultimately reaching Iran. The ultimate goal? The realization of Israel’s long-held ambition of establishing "Greater Israel."

A Growing Rift Between Saudi Arabia and Israel

As a result, the regional strategies of Saudi Arabia and Israel are beginning to diverge. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia seeks regional stability. From Riyadh’s perspective, Israel’s policy of fragmentation is counterproductive, as it fuels jihadist and revolutionary Islamist movements—precisely the forces that hinder the reconstruction of a fair and sustainable political and economic order in the region.

This growing Saudi discontent with Israel’s policies is becoming increasingly evident in the cooling of diplomatic ties and a reassessment of the Abraham Accords. The agreements, which once seemed like a strategic breakthrough, may no longer serve their original purpose, especially as Saudi Arabia has made significant strides in curbing Iranian influence.

This shift highlights a broader geopolitical debate. Saudi Arabia and Iran may find themselves aligned—at least politically—against Israel and possibly Turkey as well. Both Riyadh and Tehran recognize that Israel’s policy of fragmentation poses an existential threat to their stability. Iran fears that ethnic and sectarian fault lines within its borders could be exploited for its own division, while Saudi Arabia understands that the collapse of Syria and Lebanon could trigger a domino effect, threatening the stability of the Gulf.

The Unstoppable Domino Effect

Turkey, which initially pursued a regional project aligned with a more moderate Islamist vision, is also reassessing its strategy. If this project fails, Ankara may pivot toward expanding its buffer zone by seizing northern Syrian territories, particularly those with a Kurdish majority.

Meanwhile, Lebanon, amid Syria’s ongoing chaos, emerges as the region’s most vulnerable battleground. With its economic collapse, sectarian divisions, and fragile institutions, Lebanon provides fertile ground for Israel’s divide-and-conquer strategy.

However, Lebanon’s failure will not be an isolated event—it will trigger a much larger geopolitical shift. Aware of the stakes, Saudi Arabia is likely to act swiftly, not just economically but politically, to prevent Lebanon’s total collapse.

If Syria’s downfall was a major problem, the simultaneous collapse of both Syria and Lebanon will make stopping the domino effect nearly impossible, leading to a broader geopolitical confrontation.

The outcome of this struggle will shape the Middle East for decades. If Israel’s project of fragmentation triumphs over Saudi Arabia’s vision for a just and stable regional order, Syria and Lebanon will remain open battlefields, serving as arenas for conflicts fueled by external powers. Their societies will sink deeper into sectarianism, economic decay, and political chaos. And this instability will not stop at their borders—it will spread to Iraq, Jordan, and the Gulf, pushing the entire region toward an irreversible trajectory of disintegration.

Will Israel succeed in achieving its long-aspired dream of creating a "Greater Israel"?

Former Minister