What is happening in Syria today is no longer a mere series of details. The country, teetering on the edge, faces an uncertain future, with no clear timeline for the transitional phase it is undergoing or the foundations on which it will settle. The recent designation of Syria as an Islamic state in the draft constitution passed with little reaction. The country has shifted from a secular system to an Islamic one, altering the regional and international balance of power within its borders.

Iran, which had wielded significant influence in recent years, has now been pushed out of the scene. Russia, while scaling back its presence, has not fully exited, and it remains unclear what price it will demand for facilitating Bashar al-Assad’s removal in the manner it occurred.

Meanwhile, new players have stepped in to shape the Syrian landscape, chief among them Turkey. On the other hand, Israel continues its territorial expansion, advancing toward Damascus. Inside Syria, violent clashes persist between regime forces and armed factions. Along the Lebanese-Syrian border, repeated skirmishes and various forms of smuggling remain rampant.

Syria has always had a direct impact on Lebanon, reinforcing the long-held notion: “If Syria is well, Lebanon is well.” Under Bashar al-Assad—and before him, his father, Hafez—Syria served as a protective flank for resistance movements, providing a crucial support and logistical corridor for financial and military aid. Politically, during the Syrian presence in Lebanon, Damascus dictated key decisions, from selecting the Lebanese president to forming governments. The landscape shifted after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, further tilting the balance in an already unstable relationship between the two nations.

In a dramatic turn of events, Ahmad Al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) was appointed President of Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s escape, turning the country upside down. This move was met with widespread approval in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Joseph Aoun was elected President of Lebanon, and a government was formed, yet bilateral relations remained distant despite pressing issues, particularly the refugee crisis.

These topics were briefly addressed in a protocol meeting on the sidelines of the Arab summit in Egypt between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Syrian President Al-Sharaa. Notably, Aoun, as Lebanon’s Army Commander, had previously led the battle against ISIS and Al-Jolani forces on the border.

Lebanon anxiously observes the situation in Syria. Al-Sharaa’s rise and his control over several cities do not mark the end of the crisis. Fierce clashes with armed factions persist across multiple regions. The Lebanese-Syrian border remains a hotspot, while on the other front, Israeli incursions deep into Syrian territory are intensifying.

Backed by the United States, Israel seeks to establish a buffer zone stretching from southern Lebanon into Syria, now edging closer to the Syrian capital.

Reports from inside Syria indicate growing instability, with ongoing clashes in Daraa, Sweida, and other regions under the pretext of pursuing remnants of the former regime. Foreign elements have assumed key positions within the state, while the Lebanese-Syrian border remains a topic of unresolved debate.

Syria has become a battleground for geopolitical power struggles. Turkey and Israel vie for influence, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey competing on one side, while the U.S. and Israel push their own agenda on the other. Turkey positions itself as Syria’s guardian, while Saudi Arabia attempts to draw Al-Sharaa under its wing. Meanwhile, Qatar has solidified its role in supporting the Syrian revolution, influencing the current transitional phase.

What comes next? Analysts closely monitoring Syria predict an imminent explosion, citing resistance to Turkey’s expanding influence. Historically, whoever controls Syria also holds sway over Lebanon and the eastern front with Israel.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed plans to clear Gaza of its inhabitants to build hotels and resorts, may apply similar logic to Syria—particularly regarding the Golan Heights, Mount Hermon, and Israel’s push for a protective buffer zone.

The pressing questions remain: Will Iran accept these developments, given its deepening rift with Turkey over Syria? Will Saudi Arabia relinquish its Sunni leadership to Turkey? How long will Al-Sharaa remain in power? What will become of Syria’s Druze and their ties to Lebanon and Israel? Meanwhile, Russia’s presence lingers, as its aircraft recently patrolled over Jableh and Latakia to prevent Al-Jolani’s forces from engaging with the Russian-operated Hmeimim airbase.

One certainty remains: Lebanon is unlikely to remain unaffected by Syria’s turmoil, given their geographical and political interconnection. The challenge lies in Lebanon’s lack of a strategic vision to manage this entanglement—whether in terms of security, politics, or shared borders. Most critically, the refugee crisis looms as a ticking time bomb, with Lebanon’s Minister of Social Affairs insisting on a voluntary repatriation plan. Whether that materializes remains an open question.