Emmanuel Macron, returning from Washington, secures a symbolic success against Donald Trump, who has not budged an inch. The American president’s disruptive diplomatic strategy regarding Ukraine is further weakening Europe. Trump believes that by providing military aid to Kyiv in its defense against Russia’s invasion, it is only fair for the U.S. to be reimbursed for its financial effort. Zelensky is no longer part of the negotiation. Staying true to his unrestrained negotiating style, Trump is now demanding a “return on investment,” which he estimates at $350 billion. To achieve this, he intends to claim a portion of Ukraine’s mineral resources as compensation—an attempt to gain an advantage in the race with China for rare earth elements.

Faced with such political cynicism, Europe is left defenseless and must come to terms with the fact that the United States no longer defends a system of values based on democracy and freedom. Instead, it acts as a creditor seeking to recover its investments. Trump is now demanding that European governments allocate at least 5% of their respective GDPs to defense budgets. NATO is no longer the shield protecting Europe from Russian territorial ambitions. If Europe does not respond by making massive investments in its defense, it will be reduced to a mere spectator of its future. This is a moment of grave and historic significance.

The German economic model—built on cheap Russian gas, a thriving Chinese market for exports, and military protection under the American NATO umbrella—has been hit hardest. The German economy has plunged into recession, marking a total and brutal upheaval. Meanwhile, three years after Russia’s invasion, Donald Trump's United States has, in an unprecedented move, sided with Russia in a UN Security Council vote on the Ukrainian conflict. Trump has thus validated his vision of a swift peace agreement—one that neither condemns Moscow nor defends Ukraine’s borders. The UN resolution contains no mention of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Should the Baltic states, Poland, and Finland now fear they will be next on the Kremlin’s expansionist agenda? The world is shifting before our eyes. To prevent Russia from forming a dominant alliance with China, Trump is willing to abandon Europe to its fate. Back in 2019, Macron shocked the world when he declared that “NATO is experiencing brain death.” Today, the French president’s words ring louder and more relevant than ever.