Syria is going through an uncertain transitional phase, caught between a past era that has ended and a new one yet to emerge, requiring time before it fully materializes. This period is marked by complexity and, potentially, danger, as new power dynamics take shape and geography exerts its own dictatorship.

The Fall of Assad: The End of a Regional Order

The collapse of the Syrian regime signaled the end of a regional alliance that had lasted for over 40 years. During this time, Syria was a steadfast ally of the Soviet Union during the Cold War before becoming the political and ideological partner of Iran's post-revolutionary regime.

This alliance survived despite the collapse of the socialist bloc and the rise of the United States as the world's sole superpower. Washington repeatedly turned a blind eye to this relationship, even though it was not without tensions, due to the overlapping interests between the U.S. and Syria.

One noticeable instance was when former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad provided an "Arab cover" for the liberation of Kuwait during the 1991 "Desert Storm" operation, following Iraq’s invasion the year before. Damascus then participated in the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991, a strategic shift that indirectly acknowledged Israel and later paved the way for the Palestinians to sign the Oslo Accords in 1993.

Thanks to this diplomatic role, Syria emerged in the late 1980s as a regional power, extending its influence over Lebanon and becoming a key player in containing Hezbollah, particularly during the conflicts of 1993 and 1996.

However, after the September 11, 2001 attacks and the U.S. decision to combat terrorism globally, the fragile balance between Washington and Damascus was shattered. The invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Taliban regime marked the beginning of a definitive rupture. The 2003 Iraq War further cemented this divide when Bashar al-Assad refused to comply with the demands of U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who urged him to suppress factions hostile to Israel and the United States.

In response, U.S. President George W. Bush decided to undermine the Syrian regime through UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which sought to force Syria out of Lebanon. This withdrawal marked the beginning of the end: the loss of regional influence was the first step toward an eventual downfall, with the first signs appearing in 2011.

Lacking a strong popular base, the Syrian regime survived the armed rebellion only thanks to external support from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. The regime’s rapid collapse on December 8, following Hezbollah’s acceptance of a ceasefire in Lebanon, was a direct consequence of this dependence.

The Muslim Brotherhood: A Common Ground for New Actors

The fall of the Syrian regime benefited Turkey, the primary backer of the opposition. Recognizing the shifting power dynamics, Iran quickly moved to reestablish ties with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood aligned with Tehran’s strategic interests.

Historically, Iran has maintained strong relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, while Erdoğan now controls nearly all the levers of power in Syria. With temporary backing from Washington, Turkey has taken over from Iran and Russia, ensuring that U.S. and allied interests—including those of Israel—are safeguarded.

In this context, Ankara is restructuring the Syrian army and security forces, removing figures from the previous regime and fostering long-term loyalty to Turkey. Its influence now stretches from northern Syria (Idlib, Aleppo, Hama) to coastal and Sunni-dominated regions such as Homs, where it aims to establish permanent military bases.

This pragmatic agreement between Ankara and Tehran has expanded Turkey’s sphere of influence, adding Syria to its already extensive reach, which includes northern Iraq, northern Cyprus, western Libya, and strategic areas in East Africa and the Sahel.

For its part, Iran seeks to break the isolation surrounding its regional project and maintain its sphere of influence, even at a reduced level. Tehran continues to finance and supply Hezbollah under Turkish protection, despite the hostility of Syria’s new authorities.

Following the suspension of gas and oil supplies to Damascus, Iran has discreetly activated its networks of influence while ensuring that sectarian tensions do not escalate into a broader conflict that could harm Alawites, Shiites, and its allies.

Israel: A Key Player in the New Syrian Landscape

One of the most striking consequences of this new geopolitical reality is Israel’s military intervention in Syria, particularly after Assad’s fall. Tel Aviv systematically dismantled the Syrian army, militarily annexed strategic areas around Mount Hermon, and extended its influence up to 15 kilometers from Damascus. Israel now controls Syrian airspace, ensuring the security of Druze populations up to the Iraqi border in anticipation of a potential U.S. withdrawal from Syria.

This territorial reconfiguration goes beyond mere defensive strategy: Israel has imposed a demilitarized zone and a security belt extending from the Golan Heights to eastern Lebanon, passing through Homs. This approach is part of a broader strategic vision, encompassing the occupied hills of Lebanon.

Tensions between Israel and Turkey remain under U.S. scrutiny and are unlikely to escalate into open conflict. Washington has warned Ankara against threatening Israel’s national security while reaffirming Turkey’s importance as a key NATO ally.

What Comes Next?

Syria is entering a new era, though its contours remain unclear. Geopolitical shifts are reshaping the region, and yesterday’s alliances are no longer those of tomorrow. The country’s future remains uncertain, and the next chapter will be written according to evolving power dynamics.