The Mercosur treaty has been under negotiation for over 20 years and extends far beyond just agricultural concerns. This free trade agreement with Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Argentina represents a potential market of 270 million consumers in South America. It aims for the free circulation of goods, services, and capital.

Despite official opposition from France and Italy, the Mercosur treaty offers commercial advantages. On the European side, it involves the export of "all industries, such as cars," as one expert noted. Although the French industry now accounts for only about 12% of GDP—a level comparable to Greece's—the automotive sector is struggling across Europe, and, by extension, the entire automotive supply chain is as well. The EU could also gain reduced or even eliminated tariffs for food products such as cheese and alcoholic beverages like wine. However, the downside is that French cattle, sheep farmers, and grain producers are expected to suffer, as this adds to the existing strain on professions burdened with bureaucracy and subsidies artificially keeping segments of agriculture afloat.

From this perspective, the issue of food sovereignty and public health arises with South American producers, who do not always comply with the phytosanitary standards imposed on European farmers. These South American countries allow practices such as animal exploitation, antibiotic use, GMO corn cultivation, and deforestation. As a result, the carbon footprint of these imported, transported products is significant. Where are France's environmentalists defending the fight against climate change? Silent! And where are Germany’s Grünen with their ideological radicalism? Silent as well!

Donald Trump's election and his threat of tariffs on some European imports, including French products, could slow French exports at a time when the country's trade balance is already structurally in deficit. Moreover, the trade war with China, spurred by justified tariffs on Chinese electric cars, risks having deeply recessionary effects on European and thus French trade. For instance, Cognac from the Charente region, which is predominantly exported, could face customs barriers from Beijing.

In this context, the Mercosur treaty could serve as a lifeline for French exporters of industrial goods and services, where France stands out as a leader in Europe. Will the G20 summit in Rio produce a collective European signature on this treaty? After rallying Italy to its cause, can France bring Poland, Austria, and the Netherlands along as well? If successful, the treaty could be blocked, offering a diplomatic and domestic victory for Emmanuel Macron.

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is present at the G20 in Rio de Janeiro, will extend his stay with a state visit to Brasília. Notably, since 2010, China has been Brazil’s top trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $190 billion in 2023.