Michel Barnier has constructed a large and broad government, not to set a strategic direction for France, but to fend off potential censure in the National Assembly. The Prime Minister had no other choice. The weakness of this government is arguably its only short-term strength: no opposition party has an interest in pushing for a vote of no confidence.

This government will stumble along, much like the pairing of Retailleau (Interior) and Migaud (Justice), and will clearly be unable to craft a coherent political and economic program. The government’s weakness prevents it from addressing essential reforms that have been delayed for so many years. How can France’s public finances, in a state of deep coma, be revived? Tax hikes are on everyone’s mind. Cuts to key budgets such as Justice or National Education will only serve as temporary stopgaps. In its great leniency, Brussels has just granted an additional month to clarify France’s budgetary trajectory. The excessive deficit procedure has been triggered. "One more hour, Mr. Executioner!"

Barnier will not perform miracles. He is trying to patch up a few leaks in the sinking ship that is France, which is taking on water from all sides. Some large companies, such as the shipping group CMA CGM, might be required to make an exceptional contribution to help replenish the state’s coffers. This group profited from the COVID crisis, raking in over €20 billion in profits! The "big business" sector, through its organization Medef, is ready to chip in and make contributions to the state’s coffers, which are riddled with holes. Medef, however, sets conditions. The first of these should be to ensure that an "exceptional contribution" does not quickly become a recurring tax. The French are well aware, as with the CSG and VAT, that what starts as a "small tax" often quickly becomes a pillar of the overly confiscatory tax system in this country!

The French state budget is at an impasse. Without deep economic reforms addressing state spending and a realignment of the social model, France will fall behind permanently. The Barnier government does not have the political weight to accomplish this. France’s rescue will have to wait yet again.