France has a new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, with a long and impressive résumé. After fifty days of indecision and Macron’s political wandering, the French political crisis is seemingly over. But is it truly? Not entirely. Emmanuel Macron finds himself in a precarious political position. Marine Le Pen, leader of the national right, was directly consulted by a desperate president. How could Macron’s majority push for the "Republican Front" (anyone but the National Rally) only to end up needing to consult Le Pen, now a "kingmaker" in French politics? Macron’s government is in trouble. Since the dissolution of the French National Assembly, no party has secured even a relative majority. France appears to be slipping into a system like the Third or Fourth Republic, when governments were frequently toppled after just a few months. Barnier now faces this reality.
France is sinking into a political crisis. Will Michel Barnier find the necessary budgetary solutions in a country with deteriorating public finances?
Not only could the composition of his future government be a nightmare, but he is also under the watchful eye of Marine Le Pen, whose party garnered nearly 11 million votes in the last legislative elections. Barnier is, therefore, walking a political tightrope, targeted not only by the national right but also by the left. The left was unable to agree on a candidate for Prime Minister and is now protesting in the streets, claiming the legislative elections were stolen from them.
Meanwhile, Macron is buying time. The next presidential election isn’t until 2027, and constitutionally, he cannot dissolve the National Assembly again for a year. Will he last that long? If multiple governments fall, what options would he have but to resign? A scenario unimaginable for someone as proud and power-driven as Macron, who sees authority as a vertical pyramid with him at the top.
France is sinking into a political crisis. Will Michel Barnier find the necessary budgetary solutions in a country with deteriorating public finances? Immigration, purchasing power, and security are all urgent issues, as is the debate over proportional representation in parliamentary elections.
Whatever happens, Macronism won’t survive beyond the end of his term. France needs to act fast. Its political crisis is stalling Europe, and Germany’s economy is also struggling.