Matas Buzelis, president of the intelligent automobile association and expert at Auto carVertical, analyzes the evolution of the electric car sector. He questions the end of the internal combustion engine by 2035.

The French car market has recovered in 2023. Is the electric vehicle segment supporting this trend?

The used car market could have rebounded with a higher number of transactions. However, it was slowed down by inflation, compromising accessibility, especially in the second half of 2023. Electric cars remain an unpopular choice for the majority of drivers, notably due to charging infrastructure issues in urban areas.

According to various research, about 1% of electric cars are present in the French used car market, and by 2030, EVs could represent about 4% of all used vehicles. This means that one in 25 cars would be electric, which, in my opinion, is still too rare. Our data also shows that less than 1% of used cars inspected before purchase on carVertical in France are electric cars.

The Chinese competition in the electric market is very fierce. It feels like the measures taken in the USA are effective, and Europe appears more unarmed once again...

In my opinion, the EU should establish fair conditions for Chinese cars, as the conditions imposed on European cars in China are stricter than vice versa. European vehicles in China are subject to a 15% import tax, while in Europe, Chinese vehicles are taxed at 10%. Higher import duties should contribute to fairer competition. The problem is that Chinese cars could be much more affordable, threatening European manufacturers with losing market share.

The German automotive industry seems to be in great difficulty. What are the reasons?

In Germany, government incentives for electric cars have been removed, leading to a significant decrease in interest in EVs. Neighboring countries' governments should take note, as incentives for electric vehicles often have a major impact on the accessibility and real economic viability of purchasing an electric vehicle.

Does the construction of gigafactories for electric batteries in France constitute a major asset for relocating automobile assembly lines? Is it a national sovereignty asset in terms of electric batteries?

I would consider this as a significant economic opportunity. Having such facilities domestically reduces dependency on uncertainties such as economic disruptions and geopolitical situations, but it can also drive up prices for the components they aim to develop in France. Scaling up the manufacturing of batteries and electric power plants in countries with cheaper labor can lower prices for the end customers (drivers or new car buyers).

However, battery manufacturing requires a wide variety of material supplies, which can still lead to disruptions or shortages as they are often sourced from other countries across different continents.

Does the second-hand electric vehicle market signal the time for financial accessibility for everyone in terms of acquiring an e-car?

The financial accessibility of used electric vehicles is gaining ground. People are increasingly considering purchasing used electric cars, but the main problem of recharging persists. Recharging is not as convenient as refueling today, which prompts many drivers to stick with internal combustion engine cars. Electric cars are only a viable option when they can be recharged at home overnight or at work during working hours. Relying on public chargers is not yet an option, both in terms of convenience (time and location) and cost.

Another issue is the rapid depreciation in value of a used electric vehicle…

You are right. That's another rather important aspect of used electric cars. Their depreciation is significant. As they depreciate quickly, people can find a lot of value for money in EVs, but at the same time, if they don't trade (sell theirs and buy the next one) their car about every year, they will inevitably face significant losses due to a low residual value.

Is the 2035 deadline for the end of internal combustion engines feasible?

It's a quite ambitious plan to fully electrify new car sales by 2035! The example of the UK has shown that these deadlines could be pushed back, but the cost of postponing the deadline is very high, jeopardizing governments' reputations. When all countries are mandated to fully electrify the new car markets by 2035, it concerns businesses (fleet buyers) and manufacturers engaged in a long-term strategy. Changing the deadline would mean that millions or billions in investments would no longer be valid.

Personally, I still think there could be other options, such as keeping internal combustion engine cars alive and moving more quickly to synthetic fuels. This option would lead to more affordable and practical vehicles for car owners with high daily usage.

Is hydrogen the other clean energy of tomorrow for our vehicles?

The biggest problem for hydrogen technology probably lies in the infrastructure. It seems that the whole world (with very few markets as exceptions) has instantly turned towards the development of electric cars and recharging networks, leaving hydrogen by the wayside. The manufacturing (or extraction) of hydrogen is often considered not very environmentally friendly, meaning the carbon footprint of this particular option could be too significant.

On the other hand, hydrogen could be an option for heavy transport, as refueling is much quicker and more convenient for such vehicles. Batteries are a relatively new technology used in passenger cars. More than 100 years ago, in the 1900s in the United States, electric vehicles were more popular than gasoline cars, although the most common vehicles of the time were powered by steam engines. If the oil industry had not become so significant, perhaps today's electric cars would be much more efficient and practical to use. The pace at which technology is improving is very rapid, and I would suggest that solid-state batteries will become a next-generation technology that will change the way we perceive electric cars. However, it is not yet certain when this technology will be produced on a large scale, but I see it as an inevitable evolution in the automotive industry.