They generally go almost unnoticed, these lords of the global economy who meet every year-end in Davos, Switzerland to lay the foundations of economic strategies for the coming decades.

The era of the Black Gold War is fading with the advent of critical minerals that are now leading the high-speed train of the global technological economy. The leaders of Davos, find themselves today in this mineral war in the same situation that prevailed during the explosion of the oil era after the 2nd World War.

Rare and vital minerals are found in large part in developing countries.

"A true international strategy on critical minerals must place the interests of developing countries at the heart of its concerns. This is critical in part because a significant portion of critical minerals are found in developing economies (such as sub-Saharan Africa, which holds 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, with the Democratic Republic of Congo alone accounting for 70% of cobalt supplies). Moreover, the interests of these countries risk being overshadowed by the geostrategic and economic priorities of the developed world,” the analysts note. ***

The main players in this ongoing war are the United States and China. Their battle for control over the sources of rare minerals such as lithium and cobalt put the political and economic stability of the countries concerned at risk.

The transition to renewable energy, the digitalization of the economy, and the pressure to keep pace with developments in advanced technologies all rely on a select few minerals (lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, nickel, and rare earths are commonly referred to as the “big six.” However, others such as zinc and manganese can also be considered). It is essential that critical minerals strategies are implemented in a way that fosters international cooperation while minimizing fragmentation due to geopolitical rivalry.

International cooperation must be a priority to ensure the long-term availability of critical minerals. As Stephen Scalet of Trends Research & Advisory points out, the two forces that will make this happen are a global convener on critical minerals and greater knowledge production by think tanks, academia, and industry. Working together to identify critical minerals and their supply chains is a crucial first step to engaging in meaningful international collaboration.

Over 80% of lithium projects and over half of nickel and copper projects are on Indigenous Peoples’ lands. Extracting these resources could lead to the displacement of local populations and the destruction of natural ecosystems. According to Professor Sophia Kalantzakos, some producing countries face a huge dilemma: “Is their water more important to global markets than lithium production?” For this transition to be just, the developing world cannot become a giant extraction site for the interests of industrial nations.

Balancing competing priorities will require:

Security: ensuring reliable supplies of critical minerals and strategic autonomy.

Cost: the accessibility and equity of minerals and resources.

Sustainability: promoting environmentally and socially sustainable extraction and use.

Striking a balance is essential. Countries must not compromise environmental priorities in the name of national security. They must also ensure that cheap minerals do not cause or exacerbate mining practices.

The transition to renewable energy offers a solution to security and sustainability challenges for European countries; however, the associated short-term costs are likely to remain high. The supply chains for the critical minerals needed for the transition to green energy are complex and less mature than those for fossil fuels. Moreover, there is considerable uncertainty about the quantities of critical minerals needed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. Recent estimates from the International Energy Agency based on national climate targets suggest that demand for critical minerals will quadruple by 2040.

*** Sophia Kalantzakos, Professor at New York University, Abu Dhabi- Stephen Scalet, Scientific Advisor at Trends Research & Advisory, Vlado Vivoda, Associate Professor at Rabdan Academy