So far, attempts to find a solution remain in limbo. Either convince Salamé to manage affairs from a distance, or seek guarantees to allow Mansouri to take his place.
Growing concerns surround the uncertain future of the Governor of the Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salamé. His close associates and members of the Central Council issue warnings about a tumultuous end period. The fate of the banking platform "Sayrafa," deemed illegal by some Council members, remains shrouded in mystery, while the suspension of current directives remains a possibility.
One certainty remains: the Governor's term is drawing to a close, he who was the guardian of the people's and the country's wealth. At the end of this month, Salamé will leave his post, as he confidently confided to his close associates, never to look back, thus severing all ties with the Central Bank, his collaborators, and the State's Finance Minister, Youssef Khalil, despite their friendship.
Outside the Central Bank premises, Salamé continues his daily activities as usual, surrounded by his close advisors. He is confident in his actions and seems not at all concerned by the numerous accusations leveled against him. In secret, he is convinced that his first deputy, Wassim Mansouri, and the three other members of the Central Council, will not be able to bear the burden of his decisions or make parallel decisions, leaving the country facing a crisis that only worsens its already precarious situation.
So far, attempts to find a solution remain in limbo. Either convince Salamé to manage affairs from a distance, or seek guarantees to allow Mansouri to take his place. The first option has failed, as the governor categorically refused any form of cooperation after the end of his term, while assurances about Mansouri's professional future remain insufficient.
The Deputy Governor, once enthusiastic about taking on his responsibilities and implementing the provisions of the currency and credit law in place of the governor, now finds himself besieged by concerns. The resignation statement he signed with his colleagues was not of his own volition. His political reference suggested this idea to him, thus aiming to hit several targets at once: provoke political forces and spiritual authorities, particularly Christian ones, to solicit him and entrust him with the governor's duties. Even if he refuses, appointments will become inevitable, even if they are unpopular, which will relieve the future responsibility of the duo in charge of the state's finances, namely the government authority and the Ministry of Finance. It is not excluded that he will shoulder the responsibility for the destruction accumulated over the years.
Fundamentally, the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, was in favor of appointing a replacement for Salamé. The outgoing Prime Minister, in a mixed position, met opposition from the latter and committed to obtaining guarantees from Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Raï and the Lebanese Forces. He claimed to have potential candidates for the post, otherwise he would renew Salamé's mandate. However, barely a few hours after making this commitment, Mikati stated that there would be no renewal for Salamé, no extension... and no appointments so as not to be perceived as a challenge to the Christian community.
Behind the scenes, it is whispered that Hezbollah opposes any appointment rejected by the Christian forces. The outgoing Prime Minister obeyed Hezbollah's will, which pushed Berri to encourage Mansouri to threaten to resign, thus placing everyone before a fait accompli.
Mikati remains on alert, reiterating that Mansouri must respect the law and, in case of refusal, ensure the interim until the appointment of a new governor. He expressed this position during his recent intervention, highlighting his close relationship with Berri, although each has his own ideas and convictions.
The context surrounding the confidential discussions on the governance of the Bank of Lebanon reveals a delicate situation for the parties involved. According to the hierarchy, the first obstacle concerns the Shiite duo or one of its parts, particularly Berri. He failed to convince Mikati to make the appointment, and if Mansouri takes the reins, it would mean that the Shiites would find themselves solely responsible for the crisis, which would imply accountability and responsibilities for those who contributed to this situation.
At the recent meeting with the Finance Minister, Mansouri seemed bewildered and concerned about the magnitude of the responsibility awaiting him, knowing that Salamé's departure will trigger a crisis whose starting point could be an increase in the exchange rate of the dollar against the pound. Even the outgoing Prime Minister did not rule out this possibility, highlighting the volatility of the market and the multiple scenarios envisaged.
Mansouri is faced with uncertainty about the decisions to be taken to contain the crisis. If the current "Sayrafa" banking platform is maintained, some members of the Central Council consider it illegal and do not support its continuation. A clear alternative has not yet formed in his mind. He has been suggested to adopt a new platform and he has already started to establish contacts in this regard.
People who meet Mansouri at this moment describe him as "terrified." The young man, who was charting his path towards a promising future, moving from the legal field to finance, now feels devoid of the same strength and power as the governor to make crucial decisions, like Salamé. The latter hardly cared about opponents to his policies and acted like a savior, based on the idea that whoever holds an alternative should come to meet him. Salamé's power lay in the fact that he carried out his acts in the sight and knowledge of the political authorities who were involved with him, thus sharing responsibility. On the other hand, Mansouri, representative of the national duo or one of the parts of this duo, will be politically held accountable for every decision he will make, even if it is right. He will receive no support from the Christian forces, not to mention the fact that so far, the governor has not handed over to the members of his team, especially his main deputy, the important files nor informed them of the keys to his work and his confidential files.
Meanwhile, well-informed sources in the financial field affirm that resignation is the most likely scenario, motivated by several reasons, including the lack of agreement between the deputies on several ongoing issues and measures, their refusal to bear the consequences of their continuation, as well as the absence of guarantees or specific legislations granting them exceptional powers to intervene in the market, determine the fate of the "Sayrafa" banking platform and take measures to contain the crisis. According to these sources, the most likely scenario would be that the deputies submit their resignation and the Finance Minister asks them to manage affairs rather than liquidate them, which would give them a larger margin of maneuver and lighten the burden of responsibility. However, what would happen if the Finance Minister affiliated with the duo did not make this request?
The sources indicate that this is unlikely, as the appointment of new deputies to replace those who resign would require them to take an oath before the President of the Republic, which is not possible at the moment. On the other hand, the request to manage affairs would allow them to exercise their functions without suffering the bitter consequences of thirty years of governor's policies in collusion with the political class, a burden that the country has inherited.