Washington is fully aware that opportunities will close for Ukraine if no military gain is achieved by the end of the current year.

Last week's startling announcement by U.S. President Joe Biden, revealing Washington's intent to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs, has sparked a flood of questions. The unusual remarks from a head of state raise doubts, as such declarations are typically the domain of military officials or the Department of Defense. Are we thus facing a direct and presidential threat from the United States towards Russia?

A categorical refusal of cluster bombs?

Before delving into the implications of this statement, it's imperative to provide a comprehensive overview of cluster bombs. What are their key features, and just how dangerous are they? These small bombs, commonly referred to as "submunitions," are housed in a container or projectile that opens mid-flight, releasing their contents over vast areas, annihilating light vehicles, inflicting death or injuries on individuals, and thus removing them from the battlefield. Moreover, these bombs can cause severe bodily harm, even resulting in civilian deaths. The worst aspect lies in the deadly legacy left by these cluster bombs, whose consequences span decades, affecting generations succeeding the conflicts. It's crucial to underscore the devastating economic repercussions of these weapons in targeted areas, depriving entire populations of their use for agricultural purposes or the exploitation of the natural resources they contain. That's why about 120 countries have adhered to the Convention banning the use, production, transfer, and storage of cluster bombs, as well as all associated activities.

Putin takes a step back... but without being defeated!

Let's revisit Biden's statement, which has elicited strong reactions, sometimes perceived as an attempt at resolution, other times as a provocation likely to rekindle tensions by Putin. Biden's stated goal is unequivocal: to reach a negotiation table to extinguish the spark of war. However, so far, no evidence of communication between the U.S. and Russia regarding Ukraine has been presented. Some even suggest that this move could be motivated by the need to dispose of an old stock of U.S. military cluster bombs, given the exorbitant costs of their disposal. However, even if Ukraine were to receive these weapons, it would not be enough to reverse the balance of power given the weakness of its military training programs and its lack of experience.

In reality, Russia finds itself in a delicate position, desperately seeking to end the war while preserving its image of invincibility, a common concern among many combatants in times of conflict. Moreover, the attempted coup orchestrated by the Russian group Wagner has sown doubt in Putin about the loyalty of high-ranking Russian military officials to the command, raising questions about possible repercussions in Moscow.

Faced with these constant pressures, Putin displays increasing determination to put an end to this war, which has become both necessary and urgent, given the anticipated human and material losses. He seeks to underscore that those who have sacrificed their lives or have been injured did so to defend the greatness of the Russian Federation, which engaged in this war to take control of Ukraine and strengthen its strategic influence, while keeping NATO forces away from its borders.

A new strategy camouflaged behind maneuvers

On the American and European side, support is being provided to Ukraine to prevent its collapse and to display a willingness to preserve the country's territorial integrity. It is now evident that Russia will not be able to occupy all of Ukrainian territory and will be forced to abandon part of it. However, even if Washington and Kiev accepted a partition, there is no logical border to separate eastern and western Ukraine, except for the "Donbass" region. This area, along the eastern border with Russia, is predominantly populated by Russians and was already under Russian influence before the outbreak of the conflict.

The Russian president finds himself in a tricky situation, as Moscow's strategy to end the war where it started would involve concessions to Ukraine, which would weaken Russia's strategic depth. Could changing the dynamics of negotiations and proclaiming a decisive military victory bring an end to the war on Russia's terms and justify its actions? This possibility is not ruled out, especially since, despite all these maneuvers, ample evidence indicates that Russia is preparing for a broad counterattack to repel a potential Ukrainian offensive and for a deep incursion into Ukraine.

But what will happen if this attack does not prove decisive like the previous ones that have been failures? This raises another question. It seems that this time, many factors add value for Russia, including the use of regular and elite forces, the combination of a variety of expertise related to adopted weapon systems and special operations, as well as the exhaustion of Ukrainian forces after a long period of fighting.

Washington in a race against time

In these troubled times, where does Washington stand? More than ever, the American capital must reach an agreement that will restore the confidence of voters, who are opposed to this war and skeptical about U.S. support. The situation could deteriorate further if a Russian attack were to break the Ukrainian defenses equipped with the most advanced American and Western weapons.

Washington is fully aware that opportunities will close for Ukraine if no military gain is achieved by the end of the current year. Moscow is counting on the ruthless "General Winter" while Western economic exhaustion particularly affects the countries of the Old Continent that have generously supported Ukraine with sophisticated and costly weapons. Moreover, the upcoming elections in the United States in November 2024, as well as those in Russia and Ukraine scheduled for next March, are all factors allowing Putin to take the reins of negotiations at his leisure.

Faced with all these concerns, and without wasting time, the American president's statement on the delivery of cluster bombs to Ukraine was supposed to exert enough pressure to prompt the Russian president to order an attack that would inflict heavy losses on Russia, thus weakening its attack force and escaping its control over the Russian army. According to Biden, Putin would thus risk wasting his last chance at peace negotiations and seeing his concessions imposed as a victor. In case of maneuvering, the Russians would be forced to enter negotiations with few demands to their advantage.

It seems that Putin has well understood the message and the future is imminent...