Europe has developed through crises and advanced as a result. The current crisis is particularly significant due to its scale and depth: will Europe continue as if nothing has happened? Will it progress towards federalism or move to a collection of nations? Or, on the contrary, will it politically implode under the weight of its inertia?
The Trump administration has made obsolete the diplomatic relations of the new world order established by the "Golden Boys" of globalist politics: Trudeau and Macron. Trump is reinstating Russia as a major power, reminiscent of the Cold War era, while postponing (but for how long?) the inevitable face to face with China.
Can Europe remain truly European, or will it completely fall under the political and economic dominance of either the United States or Russia? A few months ago, in the flow of the Ukraine conflict, this question would have seemed absurd. Today, however, it is a pressing reality.
The defining characteristic of these two nations is that they defend their original national values. Meanwhile, federal Europe has largely erased the distinct values of its constituent nations. The European shipwreck is both visible and alarming.
For European political leaders, this is a brutal back to reality. The war in Ukraine has brought Europe’s weaknesses to the international stage—no army, no foreign policy, no unity. The once "legendary couple" of France and Germany is at a standstill. Their respective political and economic crises, feeding into each other, have left both countries stranded. They no longer take any initiative. Europe is sinking. The ship is diving nose down to wreck.
One manifestation of Europe’s powerlessness is evident in its handling of the Ukraine conflict. Trump and Putin have initiated bilateral negotiations, yet Europe—the most affected party—isn’t even invited. This patchwork of heterogeneous nations, most of them disarmed and on the path to economic decline, inspires fear in no one. And in an era dominated by power politics, those who do not inspire fear are insignificant.
Putin will have secured some Russian-speaking territories, lifting Russia out of its post-Soviet hangover. Intentionally or not, the United States will have permanently shifted Europe’s energy dependence in its favor. As the icing on the cake, the nations most exposed to the resurgence of the Russian bear (Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Romania) will fill the American defense industry order books for the next twenty years. Meanwhile, Europe will have sacrificed what has remained of its competitiveness. The worst is never a certainty. But Europe's erasure as a global power is unfolding within the trajectory of history. Between the United States, China, and Russia, the new "Ukrainian Yalta" leaves no room for this "small Europe," which still proves incapable of rising to the heights of global power.