Russia is emerging from Syria after the revolution that toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime with a significant strategic loss, the repercussions of which extend from the country itself to the entire Eastern Mediterranean and even Africa. A development of this magnitude will undoubtedly impact Russia's neighborhood and the nearly three-year-long war in Ukraine.

Since 1971, Syria has hosted a naval base in Tartus, whose lease was renewed in 2017 for 49 years. This facility serves as a logistics station for refueling and maintaining ships in the Mediterranean.

After 2015, Russia established the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province. This base played a crucial role following Russia’s military intervention to save Assad’s regime, which was on the verge of collapse in the face of opposition factions' offensives.

Despite Russia withdrawing most of its combat aircraft and part of its naval fleet from Syria after the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, the two bases remained symbols of Russia's return to the global stage. They showcased its ability to regain some of the influence lost following the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 and the United States' victory in the Cold War.

The significance of the Hmeimim and Tartus bases lies in their role in bolstering Russian influence in North Africa and the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert over the past decade. They served as transit points for supporting Wagner Group fighters in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Sudan.

After the lightning-fast offensive by "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" from Aleppo to Damascus within ten days, which led to Assad's regime's collapse, questions about the future of the Tartus and Hmeimim bases have multiplied.

Moscow’s initial response was to indicate it was consulting with all parties in Syria to determine the fate of these two bases without disclosing specific details. However, satellite images showed Russian soldiers stationed at dozens of sites across northern, central, and southern Syria regrouping at the Hmeimim base, seemingly preparing for a withdrawal from Syria.

Reports also mentioned military transport flights leaving Hmeimim for Libya. Additionally, Russian ships were observed departing from the Tartus naval base, and Moscow evacuated part of its diplomatic staff from Damascus.

Assad, Moscow’s closest ally in the Middle East, symbolized Russia’s strategic foothold in the region. This was the context for Russia’s 2015 military intervention, which demonstrated Moscow’s capability to protect its partners and establish itself as an indispensable global power. However, the war in Ukraine drained Russia’s resources and diverted its focus, preventing a repeat of the 2015 scenario in Syria under transformed geopolitical conditions in both Moscow and Damascus.

Russian officials expressed surprise at the Syrian army's lack of response to opposition factions' offensives, from Aleppo’s assault on November 27 to Damascus’s capture on December 8.

Against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, Russian President Vladimir Putin encouraged a positive response to Ankara’s overtures to the Syrian regime. However, Assad set preconditions for any meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, including the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria—an expectation that puzzled Moscow. Despite these tensions, Russia granted Assad asylum, though it remains unclear whether this is political or humanitarian.

The pressing question now is how and where Russia will respond to the strategic loss it suffered in Syria.

Since the Syrian regime’s collapse, Moscow has intensified airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and made significant military advances toward the strategic city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russian forces have expanded their attacks on the Ukrainian army, which still controls part of Russia’s Kursk region.

Western military analysts agree that capturing Pokrovsk would allow the Russian army to cut supply routes to other Ukrainian cities in the Donetsk region. It would also bring these cities, including Kramatorsk, the administrative capital of the region, within direct artillery range.

In this scenario, Vladimir Putin would achieve a strategic turning point, strengthening his position in negotiations proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, positioning himself from a place of strength. He could claim to have achieved most of his war goals.

After Syria, Putin seems to seek to compensate for Russia’s strategic loss by making gains in Ukraine. This military redeployment also sends a clear message to the West: the collapse of the Syrian regime has not weakened Russia or diminished its resolve to emerge victorious from the Ukrainian conflict.

This message also targets those who believe Syria’s fall would affect Russia’s influence in Africa, a region where Moscow has gained ground in recent years at France’s expense. This partially explains French President Emmanuel Macron’s hostility toward Putin, making him one of the staunchest supporters of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and prompting him to quickly dispatch an envoy to Damascus to establish contacts with Syria’s new leadership.

By escalating the war in Ukraine, Putin aims to demonstrate that Syria will not be the first domino in a series of setbacks for Russian influence globally.

However, war remains unpredictable. The day after Putin declared Russia controlled the front lines, Ukrainian intelligence claimed responsibility for the assassination of General Igor Kirillov, commander of Russian nuclear, chemical, and biological defense forces, along with his deputy, in a bomb attack in Moscow.