Except for his commitments to ending wars in the Middle East, President-elect Donald Trump has not revealed the major outlines of his plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. First and foremost, he will have to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government to end the war against Gaza and Lebanon and to avoid triggering a large-scale conflict between Iran and Israel.

Today, the Middle East is very different from what it was four years ago, when Trump left the White House. Two wars are ongoing in Gaza and Lebanon, and tensions between Iran and Israel are increasingly high. This suggests that the "Deal of the Century" proposed by Trump during his first term is no longer applicable.

Trump has never expressed support for the creation of an independent Palestinian state. On the contrary, he is a staunch supporter of Israeli settlements and maintains close relations with Netanyahu, who categorically rejects the idea of granting any sovereignty to Palestinians, whether in the West Bank or Gaza.

Will the changes in the region since last October 7 prompt Trump to reconsider his position and adopt a more realistic policy that acknowledges the Palestinian people's right to self-determination? So far, there is no indication of such a change from him. During his campaign, he even stated that after looking at the map, he found Israel too small and was considering how to enlarge it! This statement raised concerns, particularly that he might support the annexation of the West Bank and Gaza by Israel. He has appointed Mike Huckabee as the U.S. ambassador to Israel, a man who refuses to use the term "West Bank," calling it "Judea and Samaria."

Will Trump’s second term be different from his first? We won’t have to wait until January 20 to find out.

Any change in Trump's position in favor of the Palestinians could put him at odds with Netanyahu, who aims to annex the West Bank. Netanyahu now favors an approach that ignores the Palestinian issue to focus on persuading Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, to normalize their relations with Israel and join the "Abraham Accords."

However, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed during the Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh on Monday that normalization depends on the creation of a Palestinian state. The summit also emphasized the need to end the "extermination" in Gaza and called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon, while offering full support to the Palestinian people and the State of Palestine. This highlights a deep divide between Arab and Israeli positions. The question is how Trump will manage to bridge this gap. He may ultimately choose to turn away from the Middle East and leave things as they are.

Another option would be for Trump to firmly support Netanyahu’s goal of reshaping the balance of power without reverting to the situation before October 7. This would mean backing Israeli government demands for a new occupation of Gaza, the resumption of settlement expansion, and the annexation of 60% of the West Bank, thereby making the creation of a viable Palestinian state impossible.

Trump's primary concerns will likely center on avoiding U.S. involvement in another conflict in the Middle East. This "isolationist" viewpoint is shared by his elected vice president, J.D. Vance, who believes the United States should not engage militarily against Iran. This stance contrasts with Netanyahu’s vision of a redefined Middle East following 13 months of war in Gaza and Lebanon, along with intensified direct strikes against Iran.

It is worth noting that Trump recently encouraged Netanyahu to strike Iranian oil and nuclear facilities, unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, who exerted strong pressure on the Israeli government to refrain from attacking these installations on October 26. However, Trump stated in his victory speech on November 5 that he "did not want to harm Iran... as long as it does not possess nuclear weapons." He also expressed during his campaign a desire to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Tehran, replacing the 2018 agreement he withdrew from.

Trump may then resort to a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran to bring it back to the negotiating table.

Netanyahu's vision for the region involves a Middle East where Iran is a power without a nuclear program and without influence beyond its borders, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. According to Netanyahu, military gains against "Hamas" and "Hezbollah" over the past year enable him to impose a strategic shift throughout the region without yielding on the Palestinian issue.

Biden saved Israel from a major failure on October 7, 2023, without securing a ceasefire in return. Trump, in his second term, is unlikely to be less supportive of the Israeli state than he was during his first, when he moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognized the city as Israel’s eternal capital, cut funding to the Palestinians, UNRWA, and UNESCO, and acknowledged Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan. He did all this without concessions.

Will Trump’s second term be different from his first? We won’t have to wait until January 20 to find out.