Emmanuel Macron, running like a headless chicken, is trying to erase the political fiasco of his dissolution of the National Assembly. To buy himself more time, drowned by the political storm he himself triggered, the President is convening the leaders of parliamentary groups on Friday in an attempt to break the deadlock. Politically, there is urgency. Budget-wise, there is absolute urgency.
« It is imperative to bring the deficit below 3% by 2027, to maintain the trajectory of our public finances, as well as our international commitments in order to create room for maneuver, » proclaims Finance Minister Le Maire in every tone, the resigning finance minister who, under Macron's orders, has increased public debt by 1,000 billion euros since his arrival at Bercy.
The urgency is absolute. First, because in September, Bercy is obliged to send Brussels its plan to reduce public debt. The Commission is pursuing our country under the European procedure for excessive deficit ! The deficit peaked last year at 5.5% of GDP, far from the 3% required under the stability pact of the Maastricht agreements. Secondly, because the rating agencies, between September and November, will again conduct a thorough review of the credibility of French finances. Let's recall that S&P downgraded our nation's long-term credit rating to « AA- ». A downgrade that still allows us to remain among the world's best-rated countries. But the autumn, with its cohort of Leftist electoral promises, looks set to be expensive. With what money ? You can't shear a sheep without wool !
Bruno Le Maire proposes a reduction in state spending by 5 billion euros in 2025 ! An option dismissed by the head of government. Attal would settle for freezing ministerial budgets. Thus, Gabriel Attal would lean towards the dominant line within the former majority against that defended by his Finance Minister ! The political game is obvious: the government's number two wants to appear as the « father of savings » while the occupant of Matignon does not want to jeopardize his « political future » by upsetting anyone !
Meanwhile, France continues to deepen its deficits. Meanwhile, the country worries its European neighbors and private investors.
Macron, absent from the looming economic and financial crisis, looks elsewhere. The American and Chinese economies are shrouded in uncertainty ; Germany is struggling with an industry that has become less competitive since the end of cheap « Russian gas. »
Macron looks elsewhere ! The political crisis risks being compounded by a financial crisis. He pretends to ignore both. Macron's double denial !