The recent European elections have caused a political earthquake in France. The National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, scored a landslide victory, while the centrist Renaissance party, headed by President Emmanuel Macron, suffered a crushing defeat. In response to these results, Macron reacted by dissolving the National Assembly and calling for early elections on June 30 and July 7.
This risky gamble aims to mobilize French public opinion against the far right in just three weeks. The task is challenging for the Renaissance party, which must increase its low score of 14.5% in the European elections, far behind the National Rally's 31.5%. Warnings about "nationalist and demagogic dangers" might not be enough to unite voters against the far right.
"This gamble recalls the suicidal solution of Jacques Chirac in 1997, when he dissolved the National Assembly, leading to the opposite results and leaving him trapped with a left-wing government," warned the British newspaper "The Guardian." While Le Pen's National Rally appears united, with its candidate for Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella, being the most popular politician in France, the pro-European centrists remain divided.
Voters are more concerned about inflation, which erodes their incomes, and immigration.
If Macron fails to mobilize against the far right, and the National Rally gains the majority, Macron could be forced into cohabitation with Bardella. What would be his strategic choice, recalling the experience of Charles de Gaulle, who resigned in 1969 after the failure of his referendum on decentralization?
For Macron, these scenarios are far from ideal. Voters' decisions are often influenced by their economic and social situation, rather than foreign policy, even in the case of military engagement in Ukraine against Russia. The European elections showed that voters are more concerned about inflation, which erodes their incomes, and immigration.
This rise of the far right is not limited to France. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has surpassed Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party, despite accusations of extremism. An exit poll revealed that most AfD voters adhere to the party's beliefs rather than vote as a protest against the government.
Earlier this year, Scholz led demonstrations against the far right after AfD members attended a neo-Nazi meeting. However, this was not enough to diminish support for the AfD, as dissatisfaction grows over European governments' inability to solve social and economic problems, pushing citizens toward extremism.
The gains of the far right in France and Germany shake the heart of Europe. With Italy already governed by the far right, and similar successes in Hungary, Poland, Spain, Austria, and the Netherlands, concerns about the continent's political stability are growing. The attempted assassination of Slovak Prime Minister Andrej Fico in April, the assault on Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and repeated attacks on German politicians show how extremist ideas can turn into concrete actions.
The European elections, once little-watched, are now at the forefront of concerns, reflecting the major challenges facing Europe.