The European elections will take place on Sunday, June 9, in the 27 countries of the European Union. For the first time in the Strasbourg Parliament, where European national representations sit, populist right-wing parties could achieve a majority. This would be a historic first.

According to the well-informed think tank, The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), European populists are leading the polls in nine EU countries, including Austria, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. The populist wave is also poised to take second or third place in nine other nations. In total, according to the ECFR, 18 out of 27 countries would see a surge in populist votes.

This rise in European polls of national right-wing parties would enable the formation of a heterogeneous majority that would form a coalition ranging from Christian Democrats to conservatives to the most radical right. This coalition would thus gather a majority in the European Parliament capable of changing the orientation of the Brussels Commission. If this majority emerges Sunday night at the polls and subsequently through complex political maneuvers, then the policy of the entire European Union could be transformed for the first time.

The analysis from the European Council on Foreign Relations seems plausible and sufficiently substantiated. But what would be the new economic, diplomatic, and social policy of the new Strasbourg Parliament ? What would the new face of the Brussels Commission be ? Ursula Von der Leyen would no longer be the president. Would Europe be less federalist and more of a union of nations imposing higher taxes on imported products, as Brussels is about to do with Chinese cars ? Would its diplomacy be less aligned with Washington ? Would this new European Parliament push for greater fiscal and social cooperation within the EU ? And what about immigration policy ? Would there be a profound reform of the Schengen area with a new role for the Frontex agency ?

In reality, Europe is playing its place in the world on Sunday, caught between American power and the « Global South, » where China and India lead the way. It's not just questions of European identity and values at stake. As the West helplessly contemplates its own downfall, it is the economic and diplomatic future of the « Old Continent » as a 21st-century power that is on the line.