The U.S. attempted to balance its support for Israel by backing a ceasefire call to facilitate humanitarian aid to Gaza...

It's evident why the United States might see disengaging from the Middle East as not too challenging a task. They perceive the region as stable. While the Israeli-Arab conflict seems to be concluding, the Israeli-Palestinian standoff continues. The agreement between Washington and Tehran to contain Iran's nuclear program, particularly after normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, raises a question: Is it timely for Washington to fully redirect its concerns towards Asia and Europe?

It's clear that Washington may have overestimated or rushed its assessment of this shift, underplaying the significance of countries opposed to this move. It also appears that U.S. President Joe Biden may not have properly planned to secure Senate approval for a joint defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, despite its major implications in terms of advanced arms supply and the development of civilian nuclear infrastructure for the kingdom. What prospects now arise? The U.S. has banked on other Middle Eastern nations aligning with their strategy, considering Saudi Arabia as the only viable support for regional regimes. However, this analysis underestimated Tehran's hesitance to normalize relations with Arab countries, aiming more than ever to strengthen and support its regional alliances against American strategies.

Washington is encountering difficulties in the Middle East

Washington's impasse in the Middle East includes a series of misjudgments, notably underestimating the Palestinian issue. Relying on a prior agreement with Saudi Arabia, Washington believed it could overlook this sensitive matter without triggering massive reactions. This approach bolsters its desire for regional control without conceding any ground to the Palestinians. However, recent events have notably shaken Washington's Middle East perspective, yet not deterring its determination to pursue its strategy. Absolute support for Israel in a military offensive, rather than urging moderation to preserve its reputation, has generated widespread discontent towards both Israel and the U.S., leading to public condemnations, including from Jordan's King Abdullah II, for the Israeli military campaign, highlighting the complete American support and asserting neutrality in this conflict.

In response to these developments, the U.S. attempted to balance its support for Israel by backing a ceasefire call to facilitate humanitarian aid to Gaza. They also sought Qatar and Egypt, closely connected to Hamas, for hostage release. However, these modest measures risk falling short of stabilizing the Middle East without more assertive American pressure. With Israel's goal set on Hamas' destruction, the nation will undoubtedly strive to convince its people and the entire region of its invincibility by inflicting devastating damage on Gaza, in addition to massive forced displacements of its residents.

The Influence Game of Qatar Versus Turkish Aspirations

Qatar, for its part, will capitalize on its relationship with Hamas to cement its status as an indispensable regional actor, surpassing the influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Turkey seeks a role in resolving the conflict to convince Washington to sell them F-16 fighter jets, while withdrawing its support for the Kurds in northeast Syria.

And Iran, what stance does it take?

What about Iran? In the recent conflict between Israel and Gaza, Iran emerges as the main winner, leveraging the resurgence of the Palestinian issue to refocus international attention on the Middle East. The resistance axis, led by Iran and stretching from Yemen to Lebanon, has demonstrably reshaped regional political dynamics, amplifying tensions to suit its interests.

Tehran, meanwhile, bolsters its reputation as a defender of Palestinians while adeptly balancing its support for Hamas with maintaining flourishing alliances in the Arab world. This strategy aims to further anchor its presence and influence in regional politics.

To avert the worst, Washington must seriously reconsider its fundamental positions and renew its commitment to the Middle East. It's imperative to forge an innovative vision for the region, prioritizing the pursuit of a lasting political solution to the Palestinian conflict, with essential collaboration from Saudi Arabia.

As for the impact of the recent escalation in Gaza on Saudi leadership, it remains to be seen whether this could offer Saudi Arabia an opportunity to secure a definitive resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and achieve a genuine peace agreement. The extraordinary initiative of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, bringing together leaders from various Arab regions, including Iran and Turkey, could signal a step in this direction. Hopefully, these speculations will not disappoint the expectations placed on them."